This note concerns three papers by Cox and Wermuth (2008; 2014; 2015 (hereforth WC’08, WC’14 and CW’15)) in which they call attention to a class of problems they named “indirect confounding,” where “a much stronger distortion may be introduced than by an unmeasured confounder alone or by a selection bias alone.” We will show that problems classified as “indirect confounding” can be resolved in just a few steps of derivation in do calculus.This in itself would not have led me to post a note on this blog, for we have witnessed many difficult problems resolved by formal causal analysis. However, in their three papers, Cox and Wermuth also raise questions regarding the capability and/or adequacy of the do operator and do calculus to accurately predict effects of interventions. Thus, a second purpose of this note is to reassure students and users of do calculus that they can continue to apply these tools with confidence, comfort, and scientifically grounded guarantees.Finally, I would like to invite the skeptic among my colleagues to re examine their hesitations and accept causal calculus for what it is: A formal representation of interventions in real world situations, and a worthwhile tool to acquire, use and teach.
“He’s never going to admit that he did it, even though we have it all on video. I mean we have on video him taking the accelerant out of his shop and we have him on video walking toward the building, and then we know from the tests that the scientists did that it was the alcohol that started the fire, so we know he did it. But he’s never going to admit it.
“The last thing any station wants is an activist weatherman,” says Matthew Felling, media director for the Center for Media and Public Affairs, a Washington research group. Would CNN interview health correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, to talk only about heart disease? Felling asks.
Let’s all come clean: It’s 2012, and we’ll bet most of the people reading this have illegally downloaded music at one time or another. We have. And when we find something we like, we try to pay for it eventually. In an attempt to recall the sensation of hunger we headed to the gym, and joined in the constant on board circle of the loading and offloading of energy. The views matched our newly expanded girths. I was pounding the running machine, overlooking the ocean, when several flying fish burst out of the water, skittering along its surface.
Guardiola watched on as his side lost 1 0 to the Saints, but he was especially pleased with his side display as they scored five without conceding for the second time in four days.”We forgotten the Southampton result as we played incredibly well there. Football sometimes is strange. We just didn score there.