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This note concerns three papers by Cox and Wermuth (2008; 2014; 2015 (hereforth WC’08, WC’14 and CW’15)) in which they call attention to a class of problems they named “indirect confounding,” where “a much stronger distortion may be introduced than by an unmeasured confounder alone or by a selection bias alone.” We will show that problems classified as “indirect confounding” can be resolved in just a few steps of derivation in do calculus.This in itself would not have led me to post a note on this blog, for we have witnessed many difficult problems resolved by formal causal analysis. However, in their three papers, Cox and Wermuth also raise questions regarding the capability and/or adequacy of the do operator and do calculus to accurately predict effects of interventions. Thus, a second purpose of this note is to reassure students and users of do calculus that they can continue to apply these tools with confidence, comfort, and scientifically grounded guarantees.Finally, I would like to invite the skeptic among my colleagues to re examine their hesitations and accept causal calculus for what it is: A formal representation of interventions in real world situations, and a worthwhile tool to acquire, use and teach.

“They are the triumvirate,” designer Michael Kors said. “All three of these women were about clean, sharp lines, so you notice the woman first. And they’re very archetypal types: If you’re fine boned, you see Audrey Hepburn and say, ‘That works for me.’ If you’re sporty and angular, you see yourself in Jackie Kennedy, and for the patrician and classic, you automatically think of Grace Kelly.”.

Skrillex Four Tet: The Underworld Camden (London, April 5): In 2015, Kieran Hebden was to the b2b approximately what Sonic Youth was to the indie label tribute album circa 1991: omnipresent. In addition to loads of NTS sessions, Four Tet paired up with Jamie xx for an enjoyable joint Essential Mix on March 27, appeared again on BBC Radio 1’s Exploring Future Beats in July when he brought on Floating Points and Caribou’s Dan Snaith, and again on Rinse FM during Christmas Eve, when he participated in a four hour, five DJ roundelay with Ben UFO, Pangaea, Caribou, and Joy Orbison. And that’s just a cursory glance..

Im an idiot, so i stayed. He left me at work at 11pm one night and i had to hitchhike home. I bought my own car and he promptly blew the motor in his own and then punched me in the face because i told him he couldnt have mine. Whisk the flour, the sugar, salt and nutmeg in a large bowl. Make a well in the center of the flour and stir in the yeast mixture with a wooden spoon to make a thick and slightly sticky dough. Turn dough onto a floured work surface and knead until soft and elastic, about 6 minutes.

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